Key Takeaways
- A clear view of which fast food brands expanded and which contracted during 2021.
- Monthly location data reveals subtle brand momentum that headline counts often miss.
- Regional closure patterns expose uneven recovery across U.S. markets.
- Large national chains experienced localized pressure rather than uniform decline.
- Store-level open and close data provides a sharper lens on retail resilience.
2021 and Fast Food
2021 was a turbulent year for a lot of reasons and for a lot of people. In particular, let’s take a look at fast food and the different major brands. What was changing over the year for different brands? Who was closing locations? 2021 was when we realized we might be in for delivery rather than eating in restaurants for a good while longer. Some places – pizza chains, for instance – are a little better set-up to weather that storm than places that depend on you eating your french fries no more than fifteen minutes after they leave the fryer.
We’ll be focusing here on the SafeGraph opened_on and closed_on columns, which show us when different locations, well, opened or closed. This lets us see not just how many locations each fast-food chain brand has (Subway still reigns supreme, by the way), but how that number evolves over time, on a monthly level.
Let’s start by making a simple graph of what’s going on with locations in 2021:
Alright, so no major shakeups. Nobody’s dropping out of the market all of the sudden. But we can already see some differences in which brands are trending up and which are trending down. What happens if we look just at the changes?1
A lot of McDonald’s woes appear to be related to the shutdown of their Walmart locations. But the 327 net closures in the data go beyond the 200 or so Walmart locations that got closed. Seems like people really aren’t into those delivery fries!
Where are these closures occurring? Let’s take a look.
We see quite a lot going on here. The midwest and mountain parts of the country seem largely unaffected by McDonald’s shutdowns in 2021. But Florida, the Southwest, and West are looking like trouble for the arches. Three of Alaska’s 28 locations closed down, more than 10%. Nevada is also above 10%, with 13 of 125 locations shutting down.
The one that’s really got to sting is Texas, though, with 73 out of 1113 locations shutting down, or 6.6% in a big state. Ouch!
Still, things seem not to be so bad for McDonald’s in the northeast. To further dive into these regional trends, schedule a demo with one of our experts.
1. Important to note with this data is that Wendy’s, Dairy Queen, Sonic, and Arby’s only started getting tracked in 2021, so some openings we see may have just been re-openings from temporary closures that started at the beginning of the pandemic. Openings may be a bit overstates for those four.FAQ’s
1. Which fast food brands saw the most closures in 2021?
McDonald’s recorded notable net closures, including a significant number tied to Walmart locations.
2. Did any major fast food chains exit the market entirely in 2021?
No major national chain exited the market, though several experienced regional contractions.
3. Why is monthly open and close data important for analysis?
It reveals directional trends and operational adjustments that annual totals may obscure.
4. Were closures evenly distributed across the United States?
No. Certain states, including Texas, Nevada, Alaska, Florida, and parts of the West, saw higher impacts.
5. Can openings data be overstated for some brands?
Yes. For certain chains, early 2021 openings may reflect reopenings after temporary pandemic closures rather than true expansion.