Wanted to share our paper update that now includes results using the Facteus data (cc @Jonathan_Chin_Facteus @Roshan_George_SafeGraph). In particular we find Democratic counties shift their consumption towards online spending after a state-level social distancing order is implemented but their is no significant change in Republican counties. Feedback welcome!
@Marc_Painter_SLU this is super interesting! do you mind if i share this internally with my coworkers?
@Jonathan_Chin_Facteus share it far and wide!
@Marc_Painter_SLU Neat! I like the misalignment section in the updated paper (not sure if it was there before).
For the % online spending outcomes, it would be useful to try and decompose this between changes in offline and online purchases separately. E.g., Are Republican counties decreasing online and offline transactions at the same rate while Democratic counties are substituting offline transactions with online transactions? This could be indicative of the mechanisms behind the results.
Similarly, it could be useful to break these out into spending categories. E.g., Is this driven by grocery delivery services, other retail, etc?
Thanks @Levi_Boxell_Stanford - we had the misalignment results in the first draft but added several robustness tests in the new version.
We do confirm that the result holds with total online purchases as the dep var (Table A.5). We refrained from making any statements about the offline transactions on their own as some of them will include online (i.e. Target vs. Target.com). But you’re right we can do more to tease out the mechanism.
Re: categories - great suggestion! IIRC amazon is a huge driver but would be interesting to look at grocery delivery, shipment services like FedEx, etc.
Great stuff, guys, what a fascinating result!
@Marc_Painter_SLU + team!!
Genius! The folks at Peloton are getting the last laugh over all those haters on Twitter.
Hi Jialan, is the drop in the last data point driven by incomplete data for the week or reopening of the society and people starting to go outside?
Amazing. Thank you for sharing, @Jialan_Wang_U_Illinois!
@tian_qiu_University_of_Kentucky thanks - deleted the last incomplete week and updated the graph!
I was under the impression that Facteus has mostly lower income individuals? I am surprised to see this demo purchasing peloton subscriptions. Can you tell if they are subsituting away from gym memberships? Another interesting thing to see is whether they are purchasing the hardware or just the monthly access (the former being a sign of a more permanent shift to at-home workouts).
@Lindsey_Michigan The Debit Card segment of the Panel come from many Challenger Banks in the US. The target market for these Challenger Banks are actually Millennials and tech savvy Millennials. These are likely to be a good target market for Peloton
@Lindsey_Michigan and @Jialan_Wang_U_Illinois I know this is late, but i did some additional digging and see that there is quite of bit of spend in the data for Peloton App subscriptions. Peloton offers the ability to subscribe to their community and use your own spin bike.
That makes sense, but it’s strange to see the bump for app subscriptions since they extended the digital membership free trial to 90 days when the shut downs first started in March. Anyway it’s definitely an interesting trend and it makes sense since there are millennials in your sample.